2025 WR Rookie Class - Highend WR2s

Emeka Egbuka, Tre Harris, Luther Burden, and Jayden Higgins

Highend WR2 Production Rookie Campaigns

Lets take a look at the 2025 rookie WRs with high end WR2 upside based on their landing spot and expected target share. For the purpose of this exercise we will exclude Travis Hunter, who I wrote on extensively here, and is my WR1 of 2025 class. We will also exclude Tet McMillan (Panthers WR1) & Matthew Golden (Packers WR1).

After Hunter, McMillan and Golden there are a group of WRs who are in line with WR2 target share their rookie season as a baseline case: Emeka Egbuka, Tre Harris, Luther Burden and Jayden Higgins. All of these WRs were drafted 1st or 2nd round but have a clear established WR1 in front of them their rookie season:

• Emeka Egbuka - Mike Evans

• Tre Harris - Ladd McConkey

• Luther Burden - DJ Moore

• Jayden Higgins - Nico Collins

Each WR also has the talent to step into the WR2 role but some situations are more favorable then others. Emeka will have to play beside Chris Godwin, who has had injury history. I touch on Emeka role more later. Tre Harris I believe is in a great situation only competing with Mike Williams and Quentin Johnson. Luther Burden will be the WR3 behind DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, however will have a dedicated slot role and could surprise with WR2 targe share. Jayden Higgins will have Christian Kirk at the slot and fellow college teammate Jaylin Noel to compete for targets however WR2 role likely will be earmarked for Higgins as he was chosen 34th overall.

2025 WR Class - Post-Draft Model

As a refresher here are how these four WRs finished in the post-draft model. The hit rates for a top-24 WR finish are below as well.

“ This would put Emeka Egbuka and Tre Harris in the 67% hit rate bucket and Luther Burden and Jayden Higgins in the 43% hit rate area. “

The first take away is the likelihood of success based on predictive metrics. Many of you all know I take great pride in coming up with predictive grades. These grades enable us to unlock probability of success and insights on a range of outcomes.

In this case its telling us Egbuka and Harris are the better play over Burden and Higgins. I like all four but the data say Egbuka and Harris have a 50% better likelihood of success then Burden and Higgins. We must understand to embrace those odds, not dismiss them or bring in our bias. I believe the bigger takeaway here is that Tre Harris holds that designation over Burden and Higgins.

With that said, lets continue to look at where these four WRs land on my rookie draft board, see below.

See full 2025 rookie class post-draft model rankings here.

What Does WR2 Production Look Like?

For a clear picture of what highend WR2 production looks like, lets look at the twelve most targeted WR2s in the NFL from 2024 season.

The base case for a top targeted WR2 is 110 to 140 targets a season and 7 to 9 targets per game. Ultimately, the higher targets per game, the higher fantasy points per game. Here is the above data summarized:

Actional Takeaways on this group of 2025 rookie WRs

Now lets dive in to each prospect to identify which has the best base case for a highend WR2 overall season.

1. Emeka Egbuka - Tampa Bay - Elite Tier (85.3)

Emeka Egbuka securing 1st round capital with the 19th overall pick was big time for his final profile grade and tier. He finished with 85.3 grade in Elite Tier (67% hit rate).