Elite Drafters Model - Intro

Elite Drafters Model is a predictive model for college football players likelihood of success in the NFL.

Predictive Model Definition

Elite Drafters Model is a predictive model for college football players likelihood of success in the NFL. The model provides an overall grade and tier for each prospect.

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Overall Grade & Tier

In order to create an overall grade for each prospect, the model combines a basket of the best predictive analytics, variables, and metrics. Then the model is applied to all the prospects in a class and provides a ranking of the overall predictiveness of each prospects in order. Below is an example of the model results for the 2025 RB class.

For fantasy, dynasty, and scouting purposes, the overall grade and tier is super informative. The overall grade and tier informs us of the “hit rate” of each prospect with the percentage (%) likelihood of success in NFL as a top-12 and top-24 prospect at their position.

Below is an example of a “hit rate” table for a top-24 finishers by tier.

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Player Cards

Many of you are familiar with my model rankings that I post on “X” as referenced above. Today, Sunday, March 16th 2025, I have released a new asset for us all to leverage, known as Elite Drafter Player Cards.

These player cards are super informative as they summarize the players predictive analytics in a simple snapshot.

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Elite Insight Grade (EIG)

When analyzing the model the past year, and reviewing the classes and prospect results, a powerful sub-set of predictive metrics kept surfacing and was identifying elite sleeper prospects. These combo of metrics were different than the overall grade and tiers.

This sub-set of combined metrics was creating an insightful metric. It showed a pattern of finding hidden gems inside the model and provided a green light for massive upside in a prospect. This new powerful combo of metrics is now known as the Elite Insight Grade (EIG).

The EIG is a supplemental measuring stick for us to find sleeper candidates, and it has officially become the name of Elite Drafter Player Cards

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To learn more about the Elite Drafters Model and the predictive metrics that lead to a prospect becoming elite in the NFL, consider joining paid Substack. You will notice below there are is bonus content that is very insightful.

Looking forward to continuing the journey with you all as we dive deeper in the 2025 class and compare prospects against the historicals. Below I will drop player cards for the top RB prospects, don’t miss out and make sure to join!

BONUS CONTENT: PAID MEMBERS

Below we look at the NFL rookie database of all RBs from 2018-2025 classes. We identify the top-25 RB prospects in EIG since 2018 that have 1st or 2nd round capital.

From this analysis there are two red flag prospects among the top-5 RBs.

Additionally, one of the top-5 prospects has a solid EIG and we should continue to gain conviction as he rises up the boards and may be a surprise 1st round selection.